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For the third year in a row Maclean’s asked economists, investors, analysts and financial commentators to submit what they think will be an important chart Canadians should watch in the year ahead—and they delivered, in spades. From the state of Canada’s housing market and the energy sector to government finances and how Canada will fare under Donald Trump, these 7. Canadians for understanding the economy in the year ahead. Here they are, in no particular order. Enjoy! Where’s the export recovery? David Watt, HSBC Bank Canada. “Export recovery! Wherefore art thou?

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Canadian exports are stuck in their weakest cyclical recovery in 5. By this stage of a recovery—eight years on from the prior cycle peak—exports are usually almost 6. Even in weak recoveries, exports are usually up by about 3. In the current recovery, exports are just 1. The Bank of Canada recently lowered its trajectory for export growth as it recognized that structural factors might be playing a significant role in the lacklustre recovery. Policy- makers need to give serious thought, and take significant measures to improve Canada’s export performance.”Part- time employment driving job growth. Beata Caranci, chief economist, TD Economics“When it came to job creation, 2.

From a bird’s eye view, 1. Canadian landscape between January and November, which was more than each of the prior three years. But, from the ground, these jobs were in part- time positions. The degree of unfavourable composition between full- time and part- time typically has not occurred outside of a recession period. The labour market embodies the growth- challenge confronting Canada, as an overweight of part- time employment will depress growth in earnings and hours worked. This is a foreboding start to 2.

Higher rates delayed. Scott Cameron, formerly of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, now with the Mediterranean Growth Initiative and Alma Economics. Twitter: @twitscotty“This isn’t a charge against forecasters, who have little choice but to assume that the future will behave like the past (following a shock like the global financial crisis, forecasters typically return their interest rate outlooks to an estimate based on the ‘neutral rate’ that should prevail in calmer periods). And this pattern isn’t limited to Canada. Trying—and failing—to predict the path of rates has been a defining mark of the post- financial crisis experience in economies across the world. But Canadian forecasters may soon be left alone to turn the lights off at the pity party.

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The U. S. Federal Open Market Committee, seeing much stronger fundamentals in America’s economic prospects, is likely to begin raising rates as early as its Dec. As we conclude a ninth year of relentless revisions, it’s easy to question whether interest rates in Canada will ever lift off and fulfil expectations.”Destined for slower growth. Doug Porter, Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group“Somewhat overshadowed by the trauma of the global financial crisis and its aftermath, there was a critical demographic development unfolding across much of the industrialized world in recent years—including Canada. There was a sharp and pronounced slowdown in the growth of the core working age population. For instance, in the past five years in Canada, the population of those aged 1. This compares with an annual growth rate that was incredibly stable and consistently above 1. This marked slowdown in a key building block of the economy’s growth potential is sometimes overlooked because of a focus on the growth in the labour force population. Watch Cam2cam Download Full.

While that measure is still rising a bit faster than one per cent per year, the gains are increasingly driven by those above the age 6. Baby Boomers). If anything, this force will gather momentum over the next decade as the peak of the baby boom was hit in 1. Even a dramatic increase in immigration, as proposed in some quarters, is not going to turn this relentless tide.”Canada’s economy is out of balance. David Wolf, portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments“In recent years, the Canadian economy has consisted more and more of building houses and buying stuff on credit and less and less of doing things that allow us to compete now and in the future. This chart reinforces the view that rectifying the imbalance could require material further depreciation of the Canadian dollar.”Will Alberta’s job market heal? Trevor Tombe, assistant professor of economics, University of Calgary. Twitter: @trevortombe“Collapsing oil prices hit Alberta hard.

The past year- and- a- half has seen falling employment, rising unemployment (especially long- term), record- low consumer confidence, and a ballooning provincial deficit. Many wonder when it will end; 2. Various forecasts, from the Bank of Canada, the Conference Board, and more recently ATB Financial, all suggest Alberta’s recession may be over and we’ve started down the long road to recovery.

The chart to watch in 2. Alberta’s hopefully healing labour market.”Canada’s tax competitiveness is in trouble. Watch Human Traffic Online Hollywoodreporter. Jack Mintz, Palmer Chair of Public Policy at University of Calgary.

Twitter: @jackmintz“Canada’s effective tax rate on new investment (the Marginal Effective Tax Rate) reached its lowest point at 1. OECD and lowest in the G7. Since 2. 01. 2, Canada has been increasing its taxes on investment, reaching 2. OECD average (it is second- lowest in the G7 after Italy). With the OECD average effective tax rate continuing to decline, the U.

K. reducing its corporate income tax rate from 2. United States in the coming year, the trend in Canada is starkly opposite with potential tax hikes including the carbon tax. Tax competitiveness will likely be a significant issue in the coming year.”Extreme housing, Canada style. David Doyle, Canadian Strategist at Macquarie Group“Peak housing is here. The Canadian economy’s dependence on housing investment is equally as stretched relative to total output as it was in the U. S. at its peak in late 2.

Alarmingly, the breakdown of the contribution from subcomponents has also followed a similar path. Our chart shows the deviation that brokers’ commissions and other transfer costs (a subcomponent of residential investment) as a share of gross domestic product is from its long- run average. In Canada, this is now 3.

United States in late 2. The combination of i) the B. C. provincial government’s foreign buyers’ tax, ii)  new regulatory tightening measures of the mortgage market, and iii) a recent rise in Canadian mortgage rates are likely to create headwinds for this measure in 2. Canada needs business investment to rebound. Pierre Cléroux, chief economist, Business Development Bank of Canada. Twitter: @Pierre.

Cleroux“The fall in oil prices has caused a notable decline in business investment over the past two years, causing a significant slowdown in the growth of Canada’s economy. Business investment must rebound if economic growth is to accelerate. In addition, businesses must invest to improve their productivity. Doing so will help them remain competitive, domestically and internationally. Improving productivity is also essential to helping Canadians maintain our standard of living, despite the slowing growth of the labour pool caused by the aging of the population. Finally, business investment is also crucial for business growth.

For all these reasons, business investment should be monitored closely in 2. Canada losing its edge in trade with U. S. Jock Finlayson, executive vice- president, Business Council of B. C. Twitter: @jockfinlayson“Canada long enjoyed the status of being the No. American imports.

No more. We were overtaken by China a decade ago, and more recently by Mexico. Since 2. 00. 0, Canada has lost 5. U. S. market share. In some ways the picture is even darker, for the following reason: since 2.

Canadian oil exports to the U. S. have increased sharply. Absent oil, our share of the U. S. import market would be several percentage points lower than depicted in the chart.